Columbus City Council District 7 Race Analysis (2025)
Election Results Map
Interactive map showing Vogel share by precinct. Purple = Ross support, Orange = Vogel support. Click 🏠 to reset view, ⛶ for fullscreen.
Overview
The 2025 Columbus City Council District 7 race between Jesse Vogel (progressive challenger, resident of District 7) and Tiara Ross (party-endorsed Democrat, resident of District 7) was an at-large citywide election where all Columbus voters could participate, regardless of district. The results revealed a stark divide between the progressive Left and the traditional Democratic base: Ross, endorsed by the Franklin County Democratic Party, dominated among Black voters and working-class neighborhoods citywide, while Vogel's progressive challenge found support primarily in white, college-educated, gentrifying areas.
Race Results
Winner: Tiara Ross (party-endorsed Democrat)
Tiara Ross
Jesse Vogel
Margin
A close race that exposed deep fissures within Columbus Democrats. Ross's victory was built on the traditional Democratic base - Black voters and working-class neighborhoods - while Vogel's progressive challenge found its support among white, college-educated newcomers.
Columbus City Council Districts
Columbus is divided into nine City Council districts. While Council elections are at-large citywide (all Columbus voters participate regardless of district), understanding the demographic composition and voting patterns of each district provides insight into the city's political geography.
District Results Summary
| District | Winner | Vogel % | Demographics |
|---|---|---|---|
| District 1 | Ross | 47.7% | 64% White, 18% Black |
| District 2 | Vogel | 53.1% | 76% White, 6% Black |
| District 3 | Vogel | 67.5% | 78% White, 6% Black |
| District 4 | Ross | 44.4% | 36% White, 43% Black |
| District 5 | Ross | 36.4% | 49% White, 36% Black |
| District 6 | Vogel | 50.6% | 67% White, 15% Black, 11% Hispanic |
| District 7 | Vogel | 61.2% | 63% White, 24% Black |
| District 8 | Ross | 35.4% | 48% White, 40% Black |
| District 9 | Ross | 28.6% | 40% White, 45% Black |
Key Pattern: Vogel won in the four whitest districts (2, 3, 6, 7), while Ross dominated in districts with higher Black populations (4, 5, 8, 9). District 7 showed the strongest Vogel support (61.2%) with a mixed demographic profile (63% White, 24% Black).
Citywide Voting Base
Since this was an at-large citywide election, all Columbus voters participated:
Analysis Coverage: 548 Columbus precincts with complete demographic and voting data
Vote Distribution by Precinct Type:
-
Majority-Black precincts (>50% Black): 125 precincts, 19,436 votes cast
- Average Vogel support: 25.4%
-
Other precincts (≤50% Black): 423 precincts, 85,525 votes cast
- Average Vogel support: 51.4%
- Difference: 25.9 percentage point gap in Vogel support
The vast majority of votes (81.5%) came from non-majority-Black precincts, where Vogel performed much better but still lost overall.
Geographic Voting Patterns (Citywide)
Majority-Black Precincts (125 precincts citywide, >50% Black)
Average Vogel Support: 25.4% (citywide average across all majority-Black precincts)
These precincts strongly favored Ross, with some precincts showing overwhelming support:
Strongest Ross Support:
- COLUMBUS 13-B: 85.3% Ross (60.5% Black, 7.9% college)
- COLUMBUS 06-A: 84.8% Ross (74.2% Black, 15.4% college)
- COLUMBUS 13-C: 79.6% Ross (89.8% Black, 2.4% college)
- COLUMBUS 06-C: 78.8% Ross (88.0% Black, 15.5% college)
Exceptions (Vogel Won):
- COLUMBUS 04-B: 56.0% Vogel (54.0% Black, 25.9% college)
- COLUMBUS 04-D: 53.4% Vogel (59.0% Black, 13.6% college)
The exceptions were precincts with higher educational attainment, suggesting education played a moderating role.
Non-Majority-Black Precincts (423 precincts citywide, ≤50% Black)
Average Vogel Support: 51.4% (citywide average)
Vogel performed significantly better in whiter, more educated precincts, building a coalition typical of progressive challenges to party-endorsed Democrats: well-educated newcomers in gentrifying neighborhoods rather than the party's traditional working-class base. However, even winning these precincts 51.4% to 48.6% wasn't enough to overcome Ross's overwhelming margins in majority-Black precincts.
Statistical Analysis
Correlation with Vogel Support (n=548 Columbus precincts)
| Variable | Correlation | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| % White (Non-Hispanic) | +0.752 | Very strong positive |
| % Black | -0.744 | Very strong negative |
| % College Degree | +0.625 | Strong positive |
| Median Income | +0.006 | No relationship |
Key Findings
- Race Was the Strongest Predictor: The % Black in a precinct had a correlation of -0.744 with Vogel support, meaning higher Black populations strongly predicted Ross support. This was slightly stronger than the % White correlation (+0.752).
- Education Mattered, But Less Than Race: College education positively predicted Vogel support (r = +0.625), but this effect was weaker than the racial divide.
- Income Was Irrelevant: Unlike presidential races where income often correlates with voting patterns, median income showed essentially zero correlation (r = +0.006) with candidate preference in this local race.
- The Education-Race Interaction: In majority-Black precincts, those with higher education levels (like COLUMBUS 04-B at 25.9% college) were more likely to support Vogel, suggesting education moderated but did not eliminate the racial voting divide.
African American vs African Immigrant Voting Patterns
Columbus has a significant African immigrant population, particularly from East Africa (Somalia, Ethiopia). Using detailed Census place-of-birth data, we can distinguish between African American precincts and those with substantial African immigrant populations.
Franklin County African Immigrant Population
Total Africa-born: 43,361 residents (3.3% of county)
- East Africa: 18,733 (1.4%)
- Somalia: 9,506 (0.7%)
- Ethiopia: 3,798 (0.3%)
- Kenya, Uganda, Eritrea: Additional populations
- West Africa: 2,074
- Ghana: 3,632
- Liberia: 2,324
- Nigeria: 538
Top East African Precincts
Highest East African-born populations:
- FRANKLIN-F: 64.1% East African (mostly Somali)
- WHITEHALL 04-C: 71.9% East African (Ethiopian)
- COLUMBUS 83-G: 60.9% East African (457 Somali residents)
- COLUMBUS 56-D: 64.1% East African, 85% Black total
- COLUMBUS 42-E: 41.3% East African (299 Somali, 122 Ethiopian)
Voting Pattern Differences
Precincts with high East African immigrant populations showed significantly different voting patterns than African American precincts:
| Precinct Type | Count | Avg % Black | Avg % E. African | Vogel Support |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High East African (>5% EA) | 225 | 36.8% | 22.2% | 39.5% |
| African American (<5% EA, >50% Black) | 52 | 67.8% | 0.8% | 24.8% |
| Difference | - | - | - | +14.7 points |
Key Findings
- African Immigrants More Open to Progressive Challenge: High East African precincts gave Vogel 39.5% support, compared to only 24.8% in African American precincts - a 14.7 percentage point difference.
-
Three-Way Split Among Black Voters:
- African American (multi-generational): ~75% Ross (party-endorsed)
- East African immigrants: ~40% Vogel (more moderate)
- College-educated Black (any background): Higher Vogel support
- Less Integrated into Democratic Machine: African immigrant communities appear less tied to the Franklin County Democratic Party establishment, making them more persuadable by progressive challengers.
- Still Less Supportive Than White Progressives: Even in high East African precincts, Vogel received only 40% support, well below his ~52% support in white college-educated precincts.
Correlation Analysis (Columbus precincts)
| Variable | Correlation with Vogel |
|---|---|
| % Black | -0.744 (very strong negative) |
| % College | +0.625 (strong positive) |
| % East African | -0.248 (weak negative) |
The weak negative correlation for % East African (compared to very strong negative for % Black) confirms that African immigrants are substantially more open to progressive candidates than African Americans, though still less supportive than white voters.
Interpretation
This finding reveals an important nuance in understanding "Black voter" patterns:
African American communities have deep historical ties to the Democratic Party establishment and institutions like the Franklin County Democratic Party. These long-standing relationships create strong loyalty to party-endorsed candidates.
African immigrant communities (particularly Somali and Ethiopian) lack these multi-generational ties to local Democratic institutions. They're newer to Columbus politics and less embedded in the party structure that delivered Ross's victory.
This creates a vulnerability for party-endorsed candidates in increasingly diverse cities: as immigrant populations grow, the traditional Democratic coalition becomes less monolithic.
Comparison to Other Races
Presidential Race (2024, Franklin County)
Correlations with Democratic (Harris) Support:
- % Black: +0.542 (positive)
- % White: -0.507 (negative)
- Median Income: -0.316 (negative)
Key Difference: In presidential races, Black voters overwhelmingly support Democratic candidates. In CD7, they continued to support the Democratic candidate - but the establishment Democrat (Ross), not the progressive challenger (Vogel). This represents an intra-party divide, not a left-right ideological shift.
Abortion Rights Issue 1 (2023)
Correlations with "Yes" (Progressive) Vote:
- % College: +0.172 (positive)
- % Black: +0.237 (positive)
Even on ballot issues, Black voters aligned with progressive positions. The CD7 race represents a significant departure from this pattern.
Possible Explanations
1. The Democratic "Machine" vs. Progressive Insurgency
Tiara Ross had the endorsement of the Franklin County Democratic Party, giving her institutional support, established relationships with Black community leaders, and the resources of the local party apparatus. Jesse Vogel ran as a progressive challenger, explicitly or implicitly critiquing the Columbus Democratic establishment - a machine that progressives argue prioritizes developer interests, downtown business elites, and political patronage over community needs.
2. Trust and Community Ties
Black voters in District 7 appear to have trusted the party-endorsed Democrat they know over the progressive challenger they don't. Ross's connection to the Democratic Party establishment - often criticized by the Left as corrupt or compromised - may have been a feature, not a bug, for voters who see that establishment as responsive to their community.
3. Skepticism of Progressive Newcomers
The voting pattern suggests that working-class Black residents may view progressive activists with skepticism, seeing them as:
- Outsiders who don't understand the community
- Gentrifiers whose "progressive" values mask displacement
- Idealists whose policy preferences (e.g., police reform, development opposition) don't align with community priorities around safety and economic opportunity
4. Different Definitions of "Progressive"
What progressives criticize as the Democratic "machine" - patronage, relationships with business interests, pragmatic deal-making - may be seen by working-class Black voters as how things get done. Meanwhile, the progressive platform - heavy on social justice rhetoric and opposition to establishment power - may resonate more with college-educated activists than with residents focused on material needs.
5. Gentrification as the Subtext
The stark demographic divide suggests this race was really about neighborhood change:
- Vogel's Coalition: White, educated newcomers who identify as progressive and want council representation that reflects their values
- Ross's Coalition: Long-term residents, particularly Black voters, who want representation that understands their history and won't accelerate displacement
The irony: the "progressive" candidate's support base was the gentrifying population, while the "establishment machine" candidate represented community continuity.
Historical Context
This race reveals tensions between two competing visions of Democratic politics:
National Progressive Coalition (presidential races, ballot issues):
- Strong support from communities of color
- Strong support from young, educated voters
- Unified against Republicans
Local Progressive Insurgency (challenging party-endorsed Democrats):
- Support from college-educated activists and professionals
- Opposition from traditional Democratic base (Black voters, working class)
- Divided within the Democratic Party
CD7 Reality:
- Vogel (progressive challenger): Strong support from white, educated gentrifiers
- Ross (party-endorsed Democrat): Strong support from Black, working-class neighborhoods
- The "progressive" challenge came from the demographic group most associated with displacement, while the "machine" candidate represented community stability
Implications
For Progressive Politics
- The Progressive Paradox: Challenging the party-endorsed Democrat may alienate the party's traditional base, creating a coalition that looks more like gentrification than justice.
- Trust Matters More Than Ideology: Working-class Black voters chose the "machine" Democrat they trust over the progressive who claimed to represent their interests but drew support from gentrifying neighborhoods.
-
Two Definitions of "Progressive":
- National progressivism: Multi-racial coalition against Republicans (works in presidential races)
- Local progressivism: Educated insurgents against party-endorsed Democrats (splits the base)
For Understanding Columbus
The CD7 race reveals deep tensions in Columbus's rapidly changing neighborhoods:
- The Democratic Machine Has a Base: What progressives criticize as the Columbus Democratic "machine" retains strong support from Black voters and working-class communities who see it as responsive to their needs.
- Gentrification Creates Political Divides: Newcomers and longtime residents have different political priorities, even when both identify as Democrats or progressives.
- Class and Education Trump Shared Racial Politics: College-educated activists don't automatically speak for working-class communities of color, even on "progressive" issues.
- Progressive Challenges Face Legitimacy Questions: When your coalition is whiter and more educated than your opponent's, claims to represent marginalized communities ring hollow.
Demographic Breakdown: Citywide Majority-Black Precincts
125 Precincts (>50% Black) across Columbus
| Category | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| % Black | 50.5% - 91.9% | Wide variation |
| % College | 2.4% - 31.6% | Most under 15% |
| Vogel Support | 0% - 56.0% | Citywide average: 25.4% |
Highest % Black Precincts (all strongly supported Ross):
- COLUMBUS 07-C: 91.9% Black → 31.3% Vogel
- COLUMBUS 13-C: 89.8% Black → 20.4% Vogel
- COLUMBUS 06-C: 88.0% Black → 21.2% Vogel
Education as Moderator: Precincts with higher education showed less extreme Ross support, but even educated majority-Black precincts often still favored Ross.
Conclusion
The Columbus City Council District 7 race demonstrates that progressive challenges to Democratic establishments face a fundamental problem: their coalition often consists of the very people displacing the communities they claim to champion.
Key Takeaways:
- The Democratic Base Chose the Machine: Black voters citywide backed the Franklin County Democratic Party's endorsed candidate by a 75-25 margin in majority-Black precincts, decisively rejecting the progressive challenger despite his ostensibly more "progressive" platform.
- Gentrification Created an Inverted Coalition: The progressive challenger's support came from white, college-educated newcomers - exactly the demographic associated with displacement - while the "establishment machine" candidate represented community continuity for longtime Black residents.
- Education Trumped Race: While race was the strongest predictor of voting (r = -0.744 with % Black), the pattern was driven by class and education. College-educated voters of all races were more likely to support Vogel, but working-class Black voters overwhelmingly chose Ross.
-
Two Meanings of "Progressive":
- In national politics, "progressive" means multi-racial coalition against Republicans
- In local politics, "progressive" often means educated insurgents against party-endorsed Democrats
- These two definitions create incompatible coalitions
- Trust and Legitimacy Matter: The Columbus Democratic "machine" - criticized by progressives as corrupt and beholden to developer interests - retains deep trust among Black voters who see it as delivering for their communities. A progressive challenge from gentrifying neighborhoods lacks legitimacy.
The Broader Pattern: This race may represent a template for urban Democratic politics in rapidly gentrifying cities. As neighborhoods change, progressive challenges to party-endorsed Democrats increasingly pit newcomer activists against traditional working-class bases, with the ultimate irony that the "progressive" position gets associated with displacement rather than justice.
The race reveals that in Columbus, as in many cities, the fault line within the Democratic Party is not primarily ideological - both candidates are liberals - but rather about community, trust, class, and who has the right to speak for neighborhoods in flux.